NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Well, we’ve made it to another tennis Grand Slam. After a long two-month clay court season, we’ve reached the conclusion in Paris for the French Open. Defending champion Rafael Nadal will unfortunately miss his first French Open since 2004. Additionally absent on the men’s side includes Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Andy Murray and 2023 semifinalist Marin Cilic. On the women’s side, Simona Halep, Paula Badosa, Amanda Anisimova, Emma Raducanu and Ajla Tomljanovic will all miss the event. Iga Swiatek will go for her third Roland Garros title, which would give her the fourth most at Roland Garros in the Open Era. So, let’s dive straight into the draw.
Keeping this one short and sweet, the first quarter runs through Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas. I’d personally be quite surprised to see any other matchup in this quarterfinal, though if I had to pinpoint a potential spoiler, it’d be Lorenzo Musetti, who at least has the goods to test Carlos Alcaraz, but I simply cannot see him sustaining a high enough level to take the Spaniard out in best-of-five sets. Tsitsipas’ path looks quite simple, with the other seeds in his section being Felix Auger-Aliassime (well out of form), Sebastian Korda (coming off injury) and Bernabe Zapata Miralles. Tsitsipas is somehow only -120 to reach the quarterfinal (DraftKings), and with Auger-Aliassime looking like the only one with a pulse in giving Tsitsipas any type of trouble, I’ll take the pick ’em number on Tsitsipas to do just that. While I have Alcaraz winning the French Open, I’m reluctant to take a stab at his current price (+155, FanDuel). I’d personally prefer to see how the first three to four rounds play out, and if it means losing 30-40 cents of value by the quarterfinals, so be it. Djokovic’s form will play a large role in whether there will be a mid-tournament play on Alcaraz.
Much like the first quarter, the second runs through one man, Novak Djokovic. With Rafael Nadal out of the French Open, Djokovic has a chance to collect his 23rd Slam, breaking his tie with Nadal. The issue at hand however is Djokovic may or may not be 100% heading into this tournament. We know he dealt with an elbow injury in Monte Carlo and Banja Luka and did sport an arm sleeve at times in Rome. Of course, this came after the hamstring injury at the Australian Open. Is Djokovic’s body finally showing signs of age after all these years? After his loss to Holger Rune in Rome, it’s fair to question how fit and ready Djokovic will be for best of five, a question which has hardly been asked throughout his elusive career. If Djokovic is fit, he will find himself preparing for a date with Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinal. If he isn’t, then the door opens for someone in this quarter. I’ll be staying away for the time being, but keep an eye on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, someone who has beaten Djokovic on clay in best of three, as well as Karen Khachanov, who always seems to fly under the radar at Slam level and is 15-1 at Roland Garros against players ranked outside the top 10. While he’s likely to run into a top-10 opponent (he’s projected to see Rublev in the fourth round, though I like his chances in that matchup), whether it’s Djokovic in the quarterfinals or someone in the business end of the tournament, there will at least be hedge opportunities in the later rounds.
The bottom half, at least on paper, looks to have significantly more parity. This quarter in particular has a lot of storylines heading into the tournament. Can Holger Rune’s body hold up at a Slam? What kind of form will Casper Ruud offer while defending finalist points? Are Jan-Lennard Struff and Nicolas Jarry for real? I love Casper Ruud’s draw, but he’s becoming increasingly difficult to trust. He won a title in Estoril in early April, then went out in the third round at Monte Carlo. He made the semifinals in Rome, then lost his second match in Geneva. This is not the same Casper Ruud from 2022, who went 15-5 on clay, prior to the French Open (just 11-5 in 2023). In 2021, he was 14-4 prior to the French Open. Overall, Ruud posted a 1.30 Dominance Ratio on clay in 2021, 1.20 in 2022, and currently 1.15 in 2023, so there’s been regression over the last three years. He was 30/1 a week ago, but at 18/1, I can’t hop on board with Ruud. Rune is someone I’ve been invested in since last fall, grabbing a ticket to win the French Open at 33/1. While that was an unofficial play, I know some grabbed it as well, and I’m happy to ride that out, rather than add on with his number below 9/1 at most books. If Rune’s body doesn’t fail him, he’s one of the very few on Tour with the skillset to beat an Alcaraz, Djokovic or Medvedev. Lastly, I want to touch on Nicolas Jarry, who is carrying a 500/1 outright number on BetRivers, as well as +2300 to win this quarter on FanDuel. Jarry, prior to his finals run in Geneva this week, had been just 3-5 on the European red clay this season, while dropping three straight. With wins over Dusan Lajovic, Casper Ruud, and Alexander Zverev this week (and meeting Dimitrov in the final), Jarry has found some form, and it’s worth remembering how well he played Carlos Alcaraz in Rio De Janeiro earlier this season. While I don’t expect Jarry to win this tournament, 500/1 is way too long and can offer cash out or hedge opportunities. I do believe he at least has a chance to win this quarter, and +2300 (FanDuel) looks like an intriguing number. I would expect Jarry to be favored over anyone not named Holger Rune and Casper Ruud in this quarter, and he’s carrying the sixth best number at +2300.
With Daniil Medvedev coming off his first clay court title, is he ready to take another step forward and make a run at Roland Garros? We’ll soon find out, but after what we saw in Rome, there’s no question he can do so. He has a very simple draw through the first four rounds, with the other seeds in his section being Borna Coric, Alex De Minaur and Yoshihito Nishioka. Medvedev made the quarterfinals here in 2021 with a draw of Bublik, Paul, Opelka and Garin. Now arriving to Paris in his best clay court form, with a projected path of Seyboth Wild, Halys, Nishioka, Coric, it’s tough to bet against Medvedev making the quarterfinals in 2023, and he’s -120 to do so on DraftKings. Jannik Sinner will be Medvedev’s biggest test and vice versa, as Sinner’s fitness is always a concern, and that is typically a red flag against someone like Medvedev. In the outright market, Sinner (+1300, DraftKings) doesn’t appear to have enough value for someone who handed out a walkover in Barcelona, then appeared to run out of gas in the fourth round in Rome. I still have concerns over Zverev’s fitness in best of five, considering he has not won more than two matches at a single event since Dubai back in February, and has collected just two Top 50 wins in 2023. Could Aslan Karatsev repeat his 2021 Australian Open run? The Russian is coming off a semifinal appearance in Madrid, then fought his way through qualifying this week. It’s the best he has looked since his Dubai title in 2021, and as we saw in early 2021, when Karatsev is fit, in form, and motivated, he is an extremely tough out. He is favored in the first round and could see Frances Tiafoe in the second round, but after a potential date with Tiafoe, his draw could be wide open.
Total Units in Play: 5.4u
Max Winnings: 65u
I am not concerned about Iga Swiatek’s recent injury, as she has been training/practicing without any restrictions over the last week. That certainly seems like good news. The bad news is this is now the second known injury the defending champion has sustained since Indian Wells, and given the amount of tennis the World No. 1 has played over the last 16 months, it’s fair to question whether that mileage is beginning to get to her physically. Swiatek has dominated her competition on clay once again, but she’ll head into Roland Garros with just one title (Stuttgart). She additionally has dropped three sets, aside from the outright loss to Sabalenka in Madrid. Prior to the French Open last season, Swiatek had dropped just one set on clay. We know who Swiatek is typically vulnerable against (ball bashers and Barbora Krejcikova) and she has Krejcikova in her section, perhaps giving her a major test in the fourth round. The other section in this quarter is relatively weak, led by Coco Gauff, Veronika Kudermetova, and Anhelina Kalinina. Gauff is unplayable at the moment, Kalinina looked like a strong sleeper, but her injury in the Rome final is hovering over her Roland Garros status. Kalinina also may see 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva in the second round, who made a name for herself in Madrid, reaching the fourth round after collecting a trio of Top 50 wins. Andreeva may make some noise in her mini-section, which could open up Kudermetova’s draw, but aside from Krejcikova, I don’t see anyone threatening Iga Swiatek. The 2021 Champion currently has a +2800 (PointsBet) number, and is an intriguing flier given her previous history against the World No. 1.
Here’s a quarter that has potential to bring chaos. Now, when you see Elena Rybakina, you might think “Well, she’s been one of the best on Tour this year and should have no problem making the semifinals.” Let me stop you there. Rybakina went into Rome with an injury, and per her coach Stefan Vukov, was “50/50” to play. Naturally, she went on to win the tournament, but not without significant help, being given three walkovers en route to her title. Rybakina has not looked 100% all clay court season and told the media this week she was “improving physically.” Clay court conditions are typically not great for Rybakina’s style, so I’m expecting a bit of a letdown here. Linda Noskova will likely be her first big test in the second round, followed by a potential matchup with Petra Martic in the third round. Beatriz Haddad Maia sits at the bottom of Rybakina’s section, and she has a really intriguing draw, and should be a decent favorite against any potential opponent through the third round. Haddad Maia beat Rybakina in Stuttgart, ultimately ending with a retirement from Rybakina. In Section 4, the seeds are Ons Jabeur (returning from injury), Petra Kvitova (returning from injury), Donna Vekic and Sorana Cirstea. There aren’t any overly intriguing floaters as well. It’s possible Jabeur and/or Kvitova play their way into form given their easy draws, but seeing Jabeur (+3100, DraftKings) versus Kvitova (+12500, Bet365), it’s easy to see where the better value is, if taking a flier on some upside.
Both top seeds find themselves with difficult first-round matchups, as Jessica Pegula will face Danielle Collins, and Maria Sakkari draws Karolina Muchova. Given Collins’ lack of match play this season, Pegula should survive that one, but the entirety of her draw doesn’t get any easier, whereas Sakkari is in legitimate danger, currently priced as a pick’em against the same player who knocked her out at this event last season. Muchova has shown excellent form in 2023 after an injury plagued 2022 and if she can survive Sakkari, poses a real threat at Roland Garros. With the way Section 3 is set up, I anticipate the winner of that clash to represent the section in the quarterfinal. Muchova, sporting a +15000 price tag (WynnBet) offers the better value, with UTR giving her a 2% probability of winning this tournament, implying her odds at +4900. A couple other intriguing names to keep an eye on include Mayar Sherif (clay court specialist), Irina Camelia Begu, and Clara Tauson, someone who carries an incredibly high ceiling but has dealt with numerous injuries over the last year. Tauson went through qualifying and is building confidence.
Lastly, we have the final quarter of this draw, led by Aryna Sabalenka, the 2023 Australian Open and Madrid 1000 Champion. Sabalenka is not someone I value on clay, as her serve is neutralized, thus limiting her primary weapon. While she won Madrid, conditions there are great for her due to the altitude, and thus, isn’t your ordinary clay court event. While I love Sabalenka’s draw in the early rounds and believe there is strong value at -125 (FanDuel) to make the quarterfinals, she is not someone I expect to win this tournament. Section 7 has three intriguing names. Let’s start with the second highest seed in the quarter in Caroline Garcia. It was this tournament that jumpstarted her late 2022 re-emergence, though, it was her doubles title which contributed to that. Garcia has largely been out of form in 2023, but a return to a home event may be what she needs to find that form again. I’m not counting on that, but her draw in the opening three rounds could help her get on track. We took Jelena Ostapenko at +5000 to win this tournament last week, and we’ve seen that number dip below +2500 at most books since then. I don’t love her draw, but as we know, she has those weeks where she can be unbeatable, or she’ll simply hit herself out of a match. At +5000, I’m happy to see how her tournament plays out. It’s Marketa Vondrousova who piques my interest, however. The 2019 finalist sits in a mini-section with Daria Kasatkina, who is just 12-12 in 2023 (5-10 against top-70 opponents). It’s a great draw for Vondrousova to reach the third round, where she could see Ostapenko. Vondrousova’s ability to move opponents away from the middle of the court could be tricky for someone like Ostapenko, even in her best form. Vondrousova owns a 2-0 H2H, both in 2019 on the slow Sunshine Double courts. My biggest fear with Vondrousova is that she has not won more than three matches at an event all season, seemingly fizzling out physically in her fourth match at an event, every time. The good news? She carries a 21-8 record this season (8-2 on clay), is 11-5 versus top-50 opponents, and her losses inside the top 50 have come against Sabalenka, Rybakina, Potapova, Pliskova and Linette. The former three went on to win their respective tournaments. Vondrousova has been in her best form since that 2019 finals run and should benefit from the consistency of having a day off between rounds at a Slam. Aside from Swiatek and Krejcikova, you could make a strong case that Vondrousova is the next best clay courter in this field.
Total Units in Play: 5.55u
Max Winnings: 36.35u
