MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
This might also be a good time to mention that Miami is dead last against lefties in OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+.
I don’t know how much longer Sonny Gray can be untouchable, but he’s struck out 23 batters across 17.1 innings and only allowed two earned runs. His xFIP is under 1.80 and the FIP is just 0.66 so it’s not as though he’s been unnaturally lucky and even the swinging strike rate (12.7%) and CSW (31.9%) are high, but not crazy.
The Mets are a tough team to strike out at just 20.4% against righties but I’m still interested with how Gray is pitching.
The Nationals have been pesky offensively so far, but Edward Cabrera is a very talented pitcher. He’s thrown more than 200 innings and has a 26.7% K rate, although it has to be noted that the walk rate is just under 14%. He’s got to get them under control but the stuff is so tantalizing with a 14.4% swinging strike rate in the small sample this year.
JP Sears
It will take some guts but the lone pitcher that stands out in a big way is JP Sears. Baltimore can be a tough offense to deal with but his GPP score is so far above everyone else that I feel like we’re going to have to take some shots. I will say I would rather side with the Orioles here but if you’re playing MME, make sure you have both sides.
Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado
On the surface, the early slate doesn’t present us with a lot of stacks to fall in love with. St. Louis is likely to be popular since Adrian Houser is at a 7.45 ERA in four starts, and the 5.95 xFIP wouldn’t suggest much relief is on the way. He has more walks than strikeouts with a 1.76 WHIP, and he’s still using the sinker as his main pitch. The entire projected lineup for the Cardinals have a wOBA of at least .356 against righty sinkers and only Nolan Gorman and Mike Sianai are over a 9.1% swinging-strike rate against that pitch.
Rafael Devers, Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, Connor Wong
I like Cubs starting pitcher Ben Brown, but the issue here is once Jameson Taillon got back in the rotation, Brown was moved back to the bullpen, and in his last two appearances, he’s thrown 27 and seven pitches. Brown threw those seven pitches just three days ago as well, so I don’t think he’s going too deep into this game. While we can’t hone in on specific matchups, the Cubs have one of the worst bullpens in the league. They are 22nd in FIP, 23rd in xFIP, 18th in WHIP and 16th in K rate this season. Even when Brown is in, his four-seam is allowing a 19.1% barrel/BBE against righties and a .358 wOBA against lefties.
Marlins
Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Avisail Garcia, Emmanuel Rivera, Bryan De La Cruz, Vidal Brujan
There must be something the model doesn’t like about Mitchell Parker because the Marlins are popping in the GPP Scores. Parker doesn’t have a lot of experience and is probably pitching over his head just a bit so I definitely get why Miami looks solid. If this is the day that Parker does come back to Earth a bit, they could help win a GPP.
Well hello, José Soriano, and welcome to my lineups. DK has dropped the ball on multiple pitchers already this year, and Soriano is just the next man on the list.
His knuckle curve is the lead pitch and has a 42.1% whiff rate and the sinker has an average launch angle of -12 degrees. I grant you that his four-seam has not been good and that can leave him vulnerable to a team like the Twins since they are eighth in ISO. However, trying to hit for that power comes at a cost for Minnesota as they strike out 26.5% of the time. Soriano likely gives up some runs but his K potential at salary is through the roof.
Jordan Hicks doesn’t have the same style of strikeout upside on paper, since he’s only at 16.7% through 28 innings, and he does have a 4.43 xFIP compared to a 1.61 ERA, which is a concern. However, he is at home and the Pittsburgh offense isn’t exactly one that strikes fear into anyone and Hicks is continuing to generate a big ground ball rate at 58.6%. The Pirates are 29th in ISO and sixth in ground ball rate, so this is a good matchup for what Hicks is doing well.
On most slates, I wouldn’t be the largest fan of Aaron Civale at this price, but he doesn’t get to face the White Sox on most slates. The Rays haven’t done much to reverse the fly-ball tendencies that Civale has since he’s at 39.5% but they have pulled more strikeouts out of him. He’s at a career-high 26.7% K rate this year and the White Sox are at ninth in K rate against righties, not to mention dead last in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, average and OBP.
If you don’t want to spend up, you can continue to stay under $8,000 and pair Soriano or Hicks with Carlos Rodón. The Brewers have hit better than they should against righties but when they see a lefty, that’s a different story. They are one of four offenses that aren’t hitting at least .200 and they are in the bottom 10 in the rest of our offensive categories.
Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Mickey Moniak, Brandon Drury, Nolan Schanuel, Miguel Sanó
The Angels haven’t always been good to us this year, but they also get to face Chris Paddack Saturday. I will say that Paddack has been unlucky since the xFIP is under 4.00, but he’s also using his four-seam 41% of the time and it’s allowing a .359 wOBA. That’s a pitch that the Angels have handled well as Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Mickey Moniak and Brandon Drury are all over a .275 ISO against righty four-seam fastballs. Paddack has given up a .362 wOBA or higher against both sides of the plate and only has an 11.5% K rate against lefty hitters.
Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Rizzo
It’s not that Joe Ross has been a gas can or anything, but he’s using a slider/sinker combo for over 80% of his pitchers, and that may not end well against some of the big bats of New York. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton all lead the team in ISO (at least .283) and wOBA (at least .378) against righty sinkers, and then Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo have a wOBA over .360. The slider won’t bring much relief against Judge and Soto while Verdugo jumps up over .215 for his ISO against that pitch.
