NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Just two series remain to be completed in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Both have games Friday, and two teams have a chance to close things out to advance to the next round.
Elimination games are always full of drama, and it’s hard to know how players will react. The home crowd is often supportive, but in these games there could be a nervous energy and even criticism if things aren’t going well. Young players without experience in the playoffs often shrink in the moment as they learn what’s required to win in the postseason the hard way. Veterans who have been here before can use their wisdom to stay calm in the chaos or get uncomfortable knowing this might be their last shot.
There’s no lack of drama Friday, so let’s go through each game, look at projections, breakdown the change in odds, and try to find some value in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Friday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there.
NBA Best Bets for Friday
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
Current Line – Magic -3.5, 200
My Projection – Magic 102, Cavaliers 96
Key Injuries – Dean Wade is out. Jarrett Allen and Gary Harris are questionable.
The home team has won every game in this series, but the last one was very close. The Cavaliers beat Orlando by an average of 12 points in Games 1 and 2. The Magic beat the Cavaliers by an average of 31 points in Games 3 and 4. Game 5 finished with the Cavaliers ahead by just one point thanks to a tremendous block by Evan Mobley on Franz Wagner. I rate Orlando’s performance better over the five games, but Cleveland is the team that has the 3-2 lead and two chances to win and advance to the face the Boston Celtics in the second round. The Magic are a very young team and it’s often difficult for players to win in the postseason in their first playoff run. Orlando has gotten better over the course of the series, but they have to win two games in a row and one of those will be in Cleveland. It’s been a compelling, albeit low-scoring, series and there’s no reason to expect that to change.
Games 3 and 4, which were in Orlando, closed with the Magic as three-point favorites and the total set at 203. Despite two of the last three games going over their total, the market has still adjusted down three points for tonight. The pace hasn’t been as slow as expected and the shooting has been erratic. If you think these teams will shoot well, bet over 200. I’m not going to bet on these teams to make baskets at a high rate and I think the pace will be slower in what is potentially the closeout game of the series. I’m just below the market, but not by enough to bet the under though. I might look to play the 2nd half total under, so keep an eye on the FTN Bets Discord. I’ll post that wager there if/when I do make.
As for the spread, I’m not sure why the market has adjusted more in the Magic’s direction. Jarrett Allen was healthy when Orlando was favored by three in the last two matchups on their homecourt. Allen missed the last game, is questionable, and there’s some reason for the Cavaliers to rest him so he’s ready to go for Game 7 in Cleveland. Evan Mobley is healthy and gives the Cavs a rim protector, which mitigates some of the impact of missing Allen, but Cleveland is clearly a better team with Allen. His absence forces them to play Tristan Thompson, who should not be getting minutes in the NBA playoffs. I make the Magic six-point favorites, which is a nice edge over the current spread. I’m backing Orlando.
Bet
Orlando Magic -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks
Current Line – Mavericks -8, 208
My Projection – Mavericks 109, Clippers 100
Key Injuries – Kawhi Leonard and Tim Hardaway Jr. are out. Terance Mann is questionable.
This series has not been a little disappointing. Instead of watching Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving battle Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, we’ve gotten a lot of James Harden, Ivica Zubac and a little Kyrie. Kawhi Leonard missed Game 1, struggled to play through Games 2 and 3, and is now out indefinitely. Luka Doncic isn’t on the injury report, but he’s been struggling with his knee while battling a cold. Doncic is shooting just 41% from the field and 26% from beyond the arc. The Mavericks have gotten better as the series has progressed, and they look like they might be ready to win this series and maybe even more. The Clippers are moving in the opposite direction and need some great shooting if they want to stay in the postseason. It seems the series should end here, but anything is possible with Luka still sick and the Clippers ability to rain down three-pointers on the right night.
Game 4 — the last game played in Dallas without Kawhi Leonard — closed with the Mavericks as seven-point favorites and the total set at 209.5. The spread has been adjusted a point and so has the total. Luka’s knee hasn’t gotten worse, and he looked healthier in Game 5. Dallas can close out the series with a less than 100% Luka Doncic, but they’ll need him to be back to his peak form the rest of the way. I show a small edge on the Mavericks against the spread although not a big enough edge to suggest a wager. My projection also shows an edge on the over for the total, but, again, not one that’s big enough for me to bet. It’s been an uneven series and hard to predict. My gut is unsure about how this game might go and my brain doesn’t see any value in the numbers. I’ll pass.
Bet
None
