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Core Targets

Adam Scott

Looking at adjusted range of outcomes, I like to see how often a golfer’s results would be worthy of a particular finish. For top 40s in particular, there are only two golfers who eclipse the 70% mark in this field. One is super chalky Si Woo Kim and the other is Adam Scott. The Aussie also ranks first in top 20 rate and top 5 rate. I want to lean on that consistency and load up on variance around him.

Keith Mitchell

With such easy scoring at Craig Ranch, it may be tempting to look at birdie or better rates, but it’s actually been bogey avoidance that has been more predictive here in the past. It makes sense that with easy scoring, typical pars can become birdies but golfers that are throwing away silly strokes will still throw those away on an easy course. For Mitchell, he’s 7th in bogey avoidance rates over the last three months. Over that same time frame, he’s gained 46 strokes ball-striking, which is a whopping 16 strokes better than second place in the field. I don’t want to skip over that elite level of striking.

Other Notes

Seamus Power

He’s gone low in seven of 12 rounds at TPC Craig Ranch and also arrives with simmering form. He’s twirled finishes of T-26 or better in three of his last five starts. Power is starting to show glimpses of that old form that we saw so often in 2021 and 2022. At just $7,900 he fits into a lot of lineups regardless of lineup construction method.

Byeong Hun An

Historically one of the best around-the-green talents on Tour, I’m willing to overlook his recent duds in that department and chalk those up to course management. He’s proven he can navigate TPC Craig Ranch just fine with four sub-69 rounds in his debut last year (14th place). He’s getting overshadowed by chalky Hoge and Tom Kim just below him on the salary sheet, but it may pay off to find the extra few hundred bucks and land Benny An at much lower rostership.

Taylor Montgomery

I talked about this in my free Bets preview, but Montgomery just crushes on easy courses. He has 11 top-20 worthy weeks on easy courses over the last two years, which is second in the field behind only Sungjae Im. If you need someone to keep up in a putting contest, Monty is your man. His baseline stats aren’t as crispy but with one of the easiest scoring environments we’ll see all season, I want more exposure than the field.

Jordan Spieth

I’m a huge Spieth fan, but his recent wrist flare-ups have me scared to back him these days. Yet, the field isn’t having those same problems with him currently sitting third in the projected rostership numbers. He brings as much upside as any to the table, especially in a relative home game this week. Yet, with those rostership numbers, make sure you surround him with high GPP score golfers if you include him in your builds.

Taylor Pendrith

I tend to give Pendrith a look on any course where you can hit a lot of drivers and distance matters. This week checks the box. His stats look a bit ugly in 2024 but a T11 and Corales and a strong showing in NOLA as a team don’t get picked up on those stats without ShotLink. Long term, he’s very good on driver-heavy courses and courses with easy scoring so this looks like a good venue to keep his hot streak rolling.

Course Horse-tory

Looking beyond finish positions, good-round to bad-round ratios often paint a better picture.

The good rounds (monsters) are top-25 percentile rounds while the bad rounds (duds) are lower 25th percentile rounds.

Here are the top performers in that regard at TPC Craig Ranch:

+7

K.H. Lee (7 Monsters, 0 Duds)
Seamus Power (7 Monsters, 0 Duds)

+5

Jordan Spieth (5 Monsters, 0 Duds)
Matt Kuchar (6 Monsters, 1 Dud)
Joseph Bramlett (5 Monsters, 0 Duds)
Ryan Palmer (6 Monsters, 1 Dud)

The course horses Lee/Power/Spieth are getting plenty of love this week, so I don’t think any of these are sneaky. Kuchar and Palmer are pretty far out of form to trust. That leaves Joseph Bramlett as the lone potential under-rostered course horse to consider this week.

Course Fit Value

Winning GPPs usually takes some overperformance from the value tier. My favorite way to find over-performance equity is through course fit.

My fit ranking looks at lead-in stats, correlated course performance, and split stat performance to spit out names that are likely to outperform their baseline expectations.

Here are the top value names in each price tier this week based solely on that fit score:

Under $8K

Joseph Bramlett
Sami Valimaki
Peter Kuest
Andrew Novak
Kevin Yu
Taylor Pendrith

Under $7K

Jhonattan Vegas
Cameron Champ
Patton Kizzire
Joel Dahmen
Brice Garnett
Lanto Griffin

Kuest is the hot hand, but that recent form is getting overvalued by the market. I’m not saying to avoid him but just know that he’s getting a lot of love. Vegas and Champ are two interesting Texans to consider here.

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