NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to the Dynasty Stock Watch, a weekly article where I address the changes in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. This will help us as managers stay current on the most recent headlines, while also allowing us to look at player and team trends to stay ahead of the curve.
Today, I’m looking at some more players whose stock is on the rise of falling as we head toward the start of the season.
Fresh off a solid preseason performance that put his name on the radar, Cole Turner is rising within the tight end rankings. After the hiring of Eric Bieniemy, some hype began to form around the potential that one of the Commanders’ tight ends could take over the Travis Kelce role. Some people expected this to be Logan Thomas (which it still could be), but Turner is also a solid candidate as a plus athlete for his size and position. Turner has taken advantage of an injury to Thomas this summer by catching six targets for 55 yards in the preseason and making a compelling case to become the guy. There are still likely some hurdles to jump to win the job outright, and his fantasy value is still low, but he is a perfect low-risk high reward option to acquire right now.
Kenny Pickett had a typical rookie season for a quarterback when it came to fantasy last year, finishing as the QB28 with just 158.9 points. He did not become the starter until Week 4 though, so if we look at Week 4 and beyond, he was the QB20 (missing a game-plus in December with a concussion). This season we expected some improvement in year two, but we are waiting to see it on the field. This past week we saw some of this maturation, Pickett took command of the offense and picked apart an above-average Bills defense. He had great ball placement and impressive velocity on his throws, giving us a glimpse of what could be coming this year. The Steelers are loaded at the skill positions and will not ask too much of Pickett, but this is perfect, he will be able to play within his limits while having the skill players to boost his fantasy ceiling. I can see a path where Pickett pushes himself into the Derek Carr/Dak Prescott tier of fantasy quarterbacks becoming a quality QB2 with spike weeks.
Since the Tyreek Hill trade, the Chiefs and most dynasty managers have been trying to figure out who will emerge as the new WR1 in the explosive Chiefs offense. Last season JuJu Smith-Schuster was the closest to getting this role, posting a WR27 finish in PPR scoring. This offseason, Smith-Schuster moved on to New England, leaving us guessing yet again. The early favorite is last year’s rookie disappointment, Skyy Moore. Moore has taken advantage of an injury to Kadarius Toney and is giving signs he can be the guy in this offense. Moore has shown off his strong hands and impressive yards-after-the-catch abilities. We have not seen a ton of Moore in the preseason yet — he only has two catches for a mere six yards — but he has been impressive in camp. I can see Moore breaking out this season and blossoming into the star we expected him to be last year–improving his value dramatically. The time is now to go acquire him.
Now, let’s not overreact here, but a reaction is needed. Najee Harris is still an upper-tier asset, but it is starting to seem increasingly likely that his days of high-volume usage may be in the past. Harris has averaged a mere 3.9 yards per attempt for his career and saw his production dip in every significant running back stat last year. The only thing that remained intact year over year was his 10 scrimmage touchdowns. Harris has Jaylen Warren breathing down his neck, and Warren was extremely efficient last year, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt and looking extremely explosive, unlike Harris. Warren came into camp and busted the door in, he looks fresh and explosive and is flat out making it hard to keep him off the field. The Steelers need some electricity in what was a very unexciting offense last season — Warren can give them this. We may start to see Harris’s opportunity decline this year, but he will still hold solid fantasy value this year, however, time is limited.
Rondale Moore was a fantasy favorite coming out of Purdue after a hyperproductive college career, but he has been a disappointment. There were always questions about his height, but his strength and creativity after the catch were enticing and still are. As we enter his third season, he only has 95 receptions for 849 yards and 2 touchdowns, and he has yet to finish higher than the WR65 in PPR scoring. He has also only posted six games over 14 PPR points in his short career. With the addition of Michael Wilson and the team’s current trajectory, Moore will start to slide in the pecking order for targets and potentially disappear. At this point I am looking to move on if I can, the window has closed on Moore becoming a weekly starter for our teams.
Khalil Shakir was one of the consensus favorite late-round draft picks last year in rookie drafts after a productive career at Boise State. He offered great hands and an ability to separate often, so landing on a Bills roster that was desperate for playmakers after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis seemed like a perfect marriage. After seeing limited usage last year but being productive with it catching 10 of his 20 targets for 161 yards and a score, it seems like he has gone stale. The Bills added depth to the receiver room by adding Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty in free agency and then drafted Justin Shorter. This now gives them plenty of depth behind Diggs and Davis, making it even harder to carve out a role. With his usage and reports in camp and the preseason, Shakir has fallen behind all of them but Shorter, making him the fifth target at best in this offense. This is concerning for his long-term outlook, as most managers were relying on him becoming a significant part of the offense in the coming years. I am not completely out, but he is no longer a player I am looking to acquire until we get some positive news regarding his status.
