NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Welcome to my personal NFL DFS article that will give you my plays for the Conference Championship Round. I will walk you through my process of selecting each player while landing on the best spot that give you an edge at being profitable at NFL DFS in 2023. I have gone through each game and each position and broken down the reasoning of why I have landed on the players that I have.
You can follow along with the process using the FTN tools that can be found here:
I will update this article Sunday morning, if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up to date plays. Also be sure to tune into the NFL Live show Sunday morning.
The only reason Lamar Jackson is a priority over the other QBs is his ability to run the ball. This is also why he is the most expensive. I am likely making a rule to either include Jackson or one of his running backs in every lineup. The Chiefs have the worst run defense (27th via DVOA), left in the playoffs.
The secondary options are a bit tighter than last week, when I just locked in Lamar Jackson. I could see Patrick Mahomes throwing it more in this one with Isiah Pacheco banged up. Even though the Ravens are good defending the pass, they are also good defending the run so you might as well let the offense run through Mahomes.
Jared Goff is the cheapest of the starting QBs, and I actually quite like the spot for him. Although he is out of the comfy confines of the dome in Detroit, the 49ers have not been a lock down pass defense. You only have 4 teams left and all of them clearly have a solid defense and offense so I may as well lean on a team that could potentially be trailing, who also has the best overall wide receiver left in the playoffs.
Christian McCaffrey takes on the best run defense in the league (per DVOA), but the pass-catching upside and guaranteed red zone looks still makes the 2024 fantasy MVP a high priority as CMC tries to get to his first Super Bowl. He is also the only RB who is guaranteed at least 15 touches. You cannot make the same claim about any other back on the slate.
The Chiefs are the worst run defense left in the playoffs, as mentioned above. Get a piece of the Ravens ground game (Lamar counts).
I want at least one of the three in every lineup solely based on reception opportunity.
Deebo Samuel playing is only going to help Brandon Aiyuk, who already has arguably the best single receiver matchup on the board. He will primarily see Kindle Vildor, who allows the most air yards and second-most defensive yards per route run on the slate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s matchup is better than what I have been hearing reports of throughout the week. The 49ers could sell out to make sure he isn’t the guy that beats them, but that is easier said than done. He will see plenty of Deommodore Lenoir, who is allowing the highest DYPRR on the slate. Targets plus historical matchup makes St. Brown on of the safest spend ups on the slate.
I am not one who typically touts Jameson Williams, and that has served me well. But I think I will jump on board this week. Williams (or Sam LaPorta) should be the beneficiary if St. Brown is doubled up. Williams will see a good amount of Ambry Thomas, who is the second-highest targeted corner on the two-game slate. Thomas certainly is not “bad” by any means, but if Williams can come down with a few catches and chunk yardage he becomes a significant value at only $3,700 on DraftKings.
(Side Note: Looks like I will have plenty of Jared Goff.)
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays.
