The Candidates to Be the Overall QB1 in 2024

When it comes to fantasy football, the quarterback position has always getting deeper for years. That holds even more true this season after a loaded 2024 NFL Draft that featured six quarterbacks in the top 12. With the position so loaded, how many players have a legitimate chance to finish as the overall QB1 in all of fantasy football in 2024?

Let’s take a look.

Fantasy QB1 Candidates in 2024

Tier 1: The Favorites

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

I understand that the Buffalo Bills offense is going to look different without Stefon Diggs this season. Gone are the days where Josh Allen forces 160 targets in Diggs’ direction. And while many people are worried about Allen’s fantasy upside without Diggs, let me ease your mind a bit.

Remember that awful stretch by Diggs once Joe Brady took over playcalling duties in Buffalo? From Week 11 on, Diggs was far from a must-start fantasy wideout. During that span, the All-Pro averaged just 4.8 receptions and 45 receiving yards per game with just one touchdown. He also averaged just 10.2 PPR points per game during that span, while ranking as the fantasy WR42. And amid that, Allen, during that eight-week stretch, fell all the way down to… QB1. That’s right. Allen was still the top signal caller in fantasy during that span, averaging 25 fantasy points per game, posting six top-10 finishes, including four weeks inside the top five. Brady’s offense focused more on spreading the ball around, as well as relying more on the run, which included Allen. In Weeks 11-18, Allen accounted for 19% of Buffalo’s designed rush attempts, way up from his 10% designed rush rate before Brady took over. He also handled 42% of the team’s attempts inside the 5-yard line in Brady’s offense (just 12% in Ken Dorsey’s). If Diggs’ departure forces you to move Allen outside of your top-three fantasy quarterbacks, you’re overthinking it.

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes was comfortably behind both Allen and Jalen Hurts in fantasy points per game last year, though his supporting cast was clearly the worst. The Chiefs addressed that this offseason by adding Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, giving this offense more speed and reliability on deep passes. In 2023, Mahomes completed just 31.6% of his deep passes, which ranked 33rd among qualified quarterbacks. That stat reflects his supporting cast much more than it does Mahomes, who has also rushed for at least 300 yards in four straight seasons. Still the best player on the planet, I fully expect Mahomes to average 20-plus fantasy points per game in 2024.

Jalen Hurts can easily finish as the QB1. Over the last three seasons, Hurts has averaged 12.6 rushing touchdowns, while also coming off career-highs in passing yards (3,858) and passing touchdowns (23). Maybe the Eagles won’t run the rush push as often without Jason Kelce. And maybe Saquon Barkley gets (and converts) more goal-line work. But Hurts, who will be fully healthy this season, is still a terrific player in a terrific situation.

Finally, Lamar Jackson finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback last year, despite missing Mark Andrews for almost half the season. In Todd Monken’s offense, Jackson set a career-high in pass attempts (457), as well as passing yards (3,678). It wasn’t the massive uptick in pass rate that we may have expected during the offseason, as the Ravens still ranked first in the league in total rush play percentage (49.9%). However, they were more aggressive, posting the league’s seventh-highest early down pass rate (57.8%), their highest rate in 15 years. Jackson also continued to post a crazy high floor with his rushing production, averaging 9.3 attempts and 51.3 rushing yards per game.

Tier 2: The Contenders

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

He only played eight games last year, but Kyler Murray averaged almost 19 fantasy points per game. From his season debut (Week 10) on, Murray 5.5 rush attempts and 30.5 rushing yards per game. Admittedly, Arizona’s offense isn’t as fantasy friendly as it once was, but they did add Marvin Harrison Jr. this offseason, while Trey McBride broke out in 2023. And while it was back in 2020, we did see Murray finish as the QB2 in all of fantasy football, so the upside is clearly there.

Anthony Richardson is a top-five quarterback for me right now. Yes, the sample size was small, but he showed overall QB1 upside as a rookie. Richardson played the majority of the snaps just twice during his shortened rookie campaign, finishing as the QB4 and QB2 in those contests. And in Weeks 2 and 5 when he left early, Richardson was on pace for top-10 fantasy days again, especially Week 2, when he scored nearly 18 fantasy points in just a half of work. Richardson’s upside was unlocked with his rushing potential, as he averaged 6.3 rush attempts and 34 rushing yards per game, scoring four rushing touchdowns through just two full games. He had three carries inside the 5-yard line in Weeks 1-5, handling 18% of Indianapolis’ designed rush attempts during that span. No quarterback averaged more fantasy points per dropback than Richardson (0.73) during the first five weeks of the season. This Colts offense is so fantasy friendly, too. Last season, the Colts operated at the league’s fastest pace, averaging 24.0 seconds per snap, and their 16.6% no-huddle rate was the highest in football.

C.J. Stroud finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game as a rookie. He was one of just 10 quarterbacks to throw for at least 4,000 yards, all while missing two games. His deep ball is already as good as anyone in the league and his accuracy is phenomenal. Headlined by arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league, Stroud has an elite supporting cast and could contend for the league lead in passing yards in year two.

Tier 3: The Underdogs

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

A red-hot second half propelled Dak Prescott to a QB3 finish in fantasy. From Week 8 on, Prescott was dominant, averaging 289.6 passing yards, 2.7 passing touchdowns and 24 fantasy points per game. Prescott also comfortably led the NFL in pass attempts during that span (401), and with no run game to speak of in Dallas, he could once again see a ton of volume in 2024.

Joe Burrow spent most of his 2023 season banged up. He entered the year with a calf issue that didn’t subside until around Week 5 against the Cardinals. In Weeks 5-10, Burrow ranked fourth in passing yards (1,480), third in touchdown passes (13) and sixth in fantasy points. Unfortunately, his season ended in Week 11 when he suffered a wrist injury but Burrow at 100% healthy still has plenty of upside.

Yes, I have rookie Jayden Daniels in this tier. There is so much upside with his combination of elite deep passing and rushing ability. Daniels led all of college football in deep passing touchdowns last year (20), while his 1,347 yards on deep passes ranked fourth in the nation. This offense also wants to play uptempo and get the quarterback outside the pocket. If this is the landing spot for Daniels, the volume might be there right away in his rookie season. In 2019-2021 with the Cardinals, Kingsbury’s offenses ranked sixth in early down pass rate (56.5%). During that same span, Arizona was second in average seconds per snap (25.5) and easily first in no-huddle rate (35.5%).

Tier 4: The Deep Sleepers

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

It is extremely unlikely any quarterback from this tier finishes as the overall QB1 in fantasy, though their floors should all be very high. Brock Purdy finished as a top-12 fantasy signal caller in nine games last season but only had three inside the top five. Jared Goff, meanwhile, also presents a strong floor and while there has been more upside when playing at home, it hasn’t been enough to warrant top-five consideration, let alone a QB1 overall finish.

Tua Tagovailoa obviously has posted elite passing metrics over the last two seasons, and throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in this fantasy-friendly offense will certainly lead to some splash weeks. However, he presents zero rushing upside, averaging just 2.1 rushing attempts and 4.4 rushing yards per game in 2023.