NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
A lot of discussion this year in our fantasy baseball world has revolved around the seemingly endless amount of pitcher injuries we’ve been having. And while that’s certainly a pain in the keister, many top hitters have been struggling so far as well.
Just a few days ago, I took a look at the hitters from the top 125 ADP in March NFBC Draft Champions drafts, in which there were 76 hitters. Over half of them were hitting below .250, with 23 below .220 and nine below the Mendoza Line. Ouch.
Because of this, I’m now going to be discussing six more notable hitters who are struggling after doing so last week with outfielders. Today, I’ll be shifting to the infield.
Bo Bichette, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
Remember when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were a feared duo and both first-round picks? Well, not anymore. Both are massively underperforming right now compared to expectations, but should you hold these two? Use their name value and sell for a viable piece?
When it comes to Bichette, his profile is a mixed bag. Even through the struggles, Bichette has good strikeout, walk, zone contact and overall contact rates. However, Bichette’s barrel rate is down to 1.9%, along with dropoffs in his AVG EV, hard-hit rate, and a whopping 15.2% dropoff in his sweet spot rate. The contact rates along with his prior track record give me hope that the AVG rebounds a bit, but is he more than a 15/10 guy this season?
As for Guerrero, he’s still making plenty of hard contact and is running a 54.9% hard-hit rate, 12.7% barrel rate and 93.8 mph AVG EV so far this season. On top of that, Vladdy has the best walk and chase rates of his career. So what’s the problem? Well, Guerrero once again has a groundball rate north of 50% and he’s seen a 6% drop in his sweet spot rate. He’s also hitting just .056 against breaking pitches after hitting .266 against them last season.
All in all, I do expect both Bichette and Guerrero’s performance to tick up moving forward. But I don’t believe either player’s actual value will rise up and meet their perceived values.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
We’re now into the second week of May, and Spencer Torkelson still hasn’t hit his first home run of the season. He does have a dozen doubles, for what it’s worth, but those don’t help us as much in fantasy.
In addition to that goose egg in the home run column, Torkelson is slashing .218/.286/.308 with decreased quality of contact metrics across the board. After posting a 14.1% barrel rate, 91.8 mph AVG EV and 50.9% hard-hit rate last year, Torkelson is down to 2%, 88.1 mph and 38%, respectively, this season. Torkelson has also gotten extremely pull happy (53%) and his contact rate has dropped 1.9%.
Overall, Torkelson’s contact, chase and whiff rates are all pretty much in line with 2023’s metrics, but the notable drop-off in QoC along with a much higher pull rate has not been a great combination for him. It also doesn’t help that Comerica Park is one of the worst parks in baseball for right-handed power.
I’m sure Torkelson will put one over the outfield wall soon enough, but I wouldn’t be running out to buy low on him in redraft or dynasty leagues right now. The allure and hope for more will always be there given his former elite prospect status and him being a No. 1 draft pick, but Torkelson ever becoming more than a back-end top 100 player just doesn’t seem likely.
Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Can someone in the New York City area do me a huge favor and jumpstart Pete Alonso’s batting average? The positive is that he’s still hitting home runs and is currently tied for third in homers in the National League. But outside of those nine dingers, Alonso is hitting .212 with a .297 OBP and has a .216 AVG in 813 plate appearances since the start of last season.
Is this new low-AVG version of the Polar Bear what we should expect moving forward? The power is still great, and he’s coming off back-to-back 40-homer seasons, but I liked Alonso a lot more when the AVG was .262 or .271 as it was in 2021 and 2022.
Oddly enough, Alonso’s contact rates haven’t fluctuated too much over the last few years, even with the stark difference in AVG the last two years compared to the previous two years. He’s still running around league average contact, zone contact, and chase rates with similar walk and strikeout rates as well.
Even in the power department, the one area Alonso is still providing value in, his quality of contact metrics have dipped considerably this season. After posting an 89.5 mph AVG EV and 40.1% hard-hit rate in 2023, those metrics have dipped all the way down to 86.6 mph and 30.2% so far in 2024. Thankfully, Alonso consistently hits the ball at ideal launch angles which is why he’s still hitting plenty of home runs.
Ultimately, I think there’s a middle ground to be had here with Alonso in the .240ish range to pair with his usual 35-plus home runs. I’d be looking to buy low, but without the expectation of him returning top-25 value.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
After a massive spring training, the regular season has been far less kind to the 6-foot-7 Oneil Cruz. Through his first 140 plate appearances, Cruz is slashing .244/.293/.382 with five home runs and three steals. He’s still on a near 25/15 pace, but that is more than offset by his lowly AVG/OBP and minimal contributions in the run and RBI departments where he currently has 10 and 12. Those two are hard to predict due, but Cruz getting on-base at an abysmal clip coupled with a below-average lineup all-around in Pittsburgh isn’t doing him any favors.
There are two bright red flags here with Cruz. He’s running similar contact rates to his first three seasons, and while these rates are below league average, they’re not terrible by any means and aren’t the big red flags in Cruz’s profile. Those two red flags are his 35.7% strikeout rate and 55.6% groundball rate.
Cruz is hitting the ball hard with a 92.8 mph AVG EV and 49.4% hard-hit rate, but it’s difficult to capitalize on that power when most of your hitting everything into the ground. It’s hard to ignore the upside, but at this point, why are we valuing Cruz so far ahead of a player like Christopher Morel?
Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
I’m not sure what’s happening down in Atlanta with their big bats, but this needs to end quickly. There are multiple Atlanta bats struggling (compared to expectations), but the biggest one is Matt Olson, who currently holds a .198/.315/.355 slash line and three home runs in 143 plate appearances after slashing .283/.389/.604 with 54 home runs last season.
Honestly, I’m not worried at all. Olson is hitting the ball harder than last season and has even increased his zone contact rate by 4.6%. Sure, his walk and strikeout rates have worsened by 1.8% and 2.7% respectively, but neither rate is concerning in general and those aren’t massive differences to last season.
One notable difference is a 46-point drop in BABIP from .302 to .256. It should only be a matter of time before Olson starts mashing, so hold if you have him and try to buy low if you don’t.
