Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
THIRD BASE: A DIFFICULT CASE
MLB COUNTER = 13.6% of the season complete
Third base can be a challenging position to fill in fantasy. But this year it seems even more difficult, as we lost two key players shortly after drafts took place in Royce Lewis and Josh Jung. In addition, Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games on March 8, further slimming the pool of available players. So perhaps this was a good time to review which third sackers are providing value and which are not in fantasy thus far.
Listed below are the top 24 third basemen as drafted in the Main Event. How many are busts (rated XX or X below) and how many are providing value? It turns out that according to my sophisticated supercomputer, we have the following array of performance…
KEY
(5) XX: Out for a long stretch or not producing at all
(4) X: Out for a short period or producing below expectations
(3) 0: Mediocre results thus far
(8) +: Solid results to date
(4) ++: Producing well above expectations
As you can see, nine of the top 24 are not doing all that well (based on the five rotisserie categories for the NFBC Main Event), with the five rated XX really hurting those who drafted them. On the other hand, 12 third basemen are doing quite well, and for fantasy managers, they have returned at least a solid performance. And four of those 12 are really producing great results, including Elly De La Cruz (high average with strong power and 10 steals to boot), Gunnar Henderson (solid across-the-board performance), Spencer Steer (hitting well above .300) and Ryan McMahon (hitting .324 – outstanding)!
UPDATED THROUGH SATURDAY, APRIL 20
| Drafted as 3B# | Third Baseman | Main Event ADP | RATING | Stats Through 4/20 |
| 1 | Jose Ramirez | 16 | X | .239~15 R~3 HR~18 RBI~1 SB |
| 2 | Elly De La Cruz | 20 | ++ | .290~19 R~6 HR~15 RBI~10 SB |
| 3 | Austin Riley | 21 | 0 | .259~14 R~2 HR~12 RBI~0 SB |
| 4 | Rafael Devers | 27 | X | Day to Day w/Knee injury (.188~2 HR~0 SB) |
| 5 | Gunnar Henderson | 36 | ++ | .284~14 R~6 HR~15 RBI~4 SB |
| 6 | Royce Lewis | 59 | XX | Out w/Quad Injury (1.000~1 HR~ 0 SB) |
| 7 | Manny Machado | 59 | + | .250~15 R~4 HR~12 RBI~0 SB |
| 8 | Alex Bregman | 98 | XX | .225~3 R~0 HR~5 RBI~1 SB |
| 9 | Ha-Seong Kim | 98 | + | .232~12 R~3 HR~13 RBI~4 SB |
| 10 | Spencer Steer | 115 | ++ | .324~15 R~3 HR~18 RBI~4 SB |
| 11 | Nolan Arenado | 120 | X | .298~7 R~1 HR~11 RBI~0 SB |
| 12 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 123 | XX | .264~10 R~0 HR~7 RBI~1 SB |
| 13 | Josh Jung | 145 | XX | Out w/Wrist Injury (.412~2 HR~ 1 SB) |
| 14 | Jake Burger | 159 | X | Out with Intercostal Strain (.228~3 HR~ 0 SB) |
| 15 | Christopher Morel | 165 | 0 | .205~13 R~3 HR~11 RBI~0 SB |
| 16 | Maikel Garcia | 170 | + | .181~9 R~3 HR~13 RBI~4 SB |
| 17 | Alex Bohm | 179 | + | .261~9 R~3 HR~17 RBI~1 SB |
| 18 | Isaac Paredes | 205 | + | .270~9 R~5 HR~14 RBI~0 SB |
| 19 | Jeimer Candelario | 206 | 0 | .183~8 R~2 HR~7 RBI~0 SB |
| 20 | Max Muncy | 209 | + | .240~12 R~4 HR~14 RBI~0 SB |
| 21 | Ryan McMahon | 245 | ++ | .342~8 R~2 HR~11 RBI~0 SB |
| 22 | Luis Rengifo | 264 | + | .263~7 R~0 HR~5 RBI~6 SB |
| 23 | Matt Chapman | 269 | + | .224~12 R~4 HR~12 RBI~2 SB |
| 24 | Colt Keith | 298 | XX | .183~4 R~0 HR~5 RBI~1 SB |
Most Common FAAB Pickups in the Main Event: Turning the Pages
FAAB #5 (our weekly look at how these top owners are spending their fictional $1,000 free agent acquisition budget in the Main Event) is solidly in the heavy FAAB season. In this latest one (Sunday, April 21), the bidding was fairly aggressive, but still not as high as we have seen in past years. The top 10 widest acquisitions this week are in the chart below, and Andy Pages (LAD) and Jonatan Clase (SEA) were added in the most leagues (all 57). Pages had the higher bids because he is playing regularly for the vaunted Dodgers lineup and has two homers and a steal in his limited time in the majors. Clase, for his part, is just 5-for-40 but has a homer and three steals, so fantasy managers looking for help in stolen bases were attracted to his services.
The No. 3 most-added player was surprise Baltimore starter Albert Suarez, who stymied the Twins last Wednesday over 5.2 scoreless innings. And speaking of shutout innings, Mitchell Parker of Washington supplied seven of them against the Astros on Sunday. As thanks, Main Event owners almost made him universally owned just a few hours later. Six other players were added in 40 or more leagues: Sean Bouchard of Colorado (great schedule this week), Mark Leiter Jr. and Hector Neris of the Chicago Cubs (which one will close?), Wilyer Abreu of Boston (might be the regular outfielder), Miguel Sano of the Los Angeles Angels (has he rediscovered his power stroke?) and Michael Massey of Kansas City (back from injury for KC).
NFBC Main Event – Most Added Players
| Player | # of Leagues Added | Reason | Highest Winning Bid | Lowest Winning Bid |
| Andy Pages | 57 | 2 HR for LAD | 266 | 40 |
| Jonatan Clase | 57 | Speedy OF in SEA | 152 | 11 |
| Albert Suarez | 55 | 5.2 scoreless vs. MIN | 92 | 8 |
| Mitchell Parker | 54 | 7 Shutout IP vs. HOU | 177 | 2 |
| Sean Bouchard | 53 | Coors Field & Mexico | 87 | 3 |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | 49 | New Cubs Closer? | 115 | 3 |
| Wilyer Abreu | 45 | Solid PT for BOS | 350 | 31 |
| Hector Neris | 45 | New Cubs Closer? | 185 | 17 |
| Miguel Sano | 45 | Getting PT for LAA | 55 | 1 |
| Michael Massey | 40 | Could be regular KC 2B | 55 | 1 |
Winning Bids over $100 and $200
I’m also keeping tabs on players attracting the highest individual FAAB bids as well. In the fifth run on April 21 (see below), there were 14 $200-plus successful bids, one more than last week), for the following players (Wilyer Abreu – 4; Joel Payamps – 4; Andy Pages – 4; Luis Garcia (WAS) – 1; and Edward Cabrera – 1. In addition, there were 80 bids of $100-199 scattered across the player landscape as owners searched for options for the upcoming week.
Weekly Summary
| FAAB Date | Over $200 | Between $100 to $199 |
| 3/24 | 1 | 9 |
| 3/31 | 58 | 43 |
| 4/7 | 1 | 23 |
| 4/14 | 13 | 80 |
| 4/21 | 14 | 80 |
The Wow Bid of the Week: Wilyer Pay Up for Me?
So, this is the section where I reveal which player was the target of the highest bid this past Sunday, and it’s a player we’ve already mentioned. Wilyer Abreu’s services were won with a very strong $350 bid (third-highest bid so far in 2024), which had no problem overcoming an unsuccessful runner-up bid of $31. Abreu hit a lusty .333 with 1 HR and 3 SB this week and is now owned in all 57 Main Event leagues.
- 3/24: Nolan Schanuel $200
- 3/31: Jason Foley $479
- 4/7: James McArthur $225
- 4/14 Brandon Nimmo $578
- 4/21 Wilyer Abreu $350
FAAB Summary: The Spending Begins
In the first five FAAB weeks, Main Event owners have had 2,029 winning bids (the most so far) and have spent about $229 of their $1,000 allocation. This is still lower than the last three years at the five-week mark, but this is the second straight week we’ve breached the $60 per week (per team) threshold. Main Event owners are ready to spend if they get some attractive free agents in the pool. As you can see in the second chart below, this period traditionally shows the highest per team per week amounts:
2024: $229
2023: $296
2022: $244
2021: $318
The average Main Event week four winning bid was $28.33 this week, below previous years (generally in the $27-39 range).
| 2024 FAAB Week | Total # of Winning Bids | Total FAAB Dollars Spent | Average Winning Bid | Average Amount Spent (per team) | Cumulative FAAB Spent (per team) |
| 1 | 310 | $4,929 | $15.90 | $5.76 | |
| 2 | 1460 | $46,330 | $31.73 | $54.19 | $59.95 |
| 3 | 1728 | $34,480 | $19.95 | $40.33 | $100.28 |
| 4 | 1825 | $52,908 | $28.99 | $61.88 | $162.16 |
| 5 | 2029 | $57,486 | $28.33 | $67.24 | $229.40 |
| TOTAL | 7352 | $196,133 | $26.68 | $229.40 |
Average FAAB $ Spent Per Season (2021-2024, per team)
| FAAB Period | 2024 Average Spend | 2023 Average Spend | 2022 Average Spend | 2021 Average Spend |
| 1 | $5.76 | $8.46 | $11.29 | $9.89 |
| 2 | $54.19 | $63.55 | $51.24 | $86.71 |
| 3 | $40.33 | $70.01 | $65.29 | $85.95 |
| 4 | $61.88 | $86.51 | $62.57 | $67.98 |
| 5 | $67.24 | $67.77 | $53.82 | $67.41 |
| 6 | $77.52 | $71.32 | $66.39 | |
| 7 | $93.31 | $83.64 | $47.16 | |
| 8 | $75.35 | $65.81 | $42.71 |
The Colosseum
| Player | # Leagues | Stats (last 3 weeks) |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | 57 | .239 BA 1 HR 0 SB (8/7 R:RBI) |
| Jason Foley | 44 | 8.2 IP (8/6 K:BB) 2 W 4 SV 0.00 ERA 1.27 WHIP |
| Tyler Freeman | 39 | .208 BA 3 HR 1 SB (8/9 R:RBI) |
| Emerson Hancock | 35 | 20.2 IP (15/3 K:BB) 2 W 0 SV 6.10 ERA 1.26 WHIP |
Each week during the season, I’ll take a look at the four widest Main Event pickups from three weeks ago and evaluate whether it was a good addition based on the early stats (thumbs up); a bad idea (thumbs down); or simply a push. Three weeks ago we had our second FAAB run, and as you can see from the above stats, we had two somewhat mediocre pickups (Oswaldo Cabrera and Tyler Freeman). Both have not afforded real help in batting average, but the counting stats have been pretty good. We’ll grade them as pushes. Jason Foley, though, has been an outstanding addition. He has four saves and two wins and has yet to surrender an earned run. Finally, we almost had our first thumbs down in Emerson Hancock, but his strong showing last night gave him a second win and slimmed down his ratios. Well give him a push for now.
This gives the Main Event owners a strong leg up in 2024 with 5 thumbs up; 0 thumbs down; and 3 pushes, which could allow us to surpass the final 2023 total of 39 thumbs up for the season (44%), 36 down (41%) and 13 pushes (15%). The 2023 good pickups were the highest since I’ve been tracking it last year, compared to the 2022 good pickups mark of 39% and 24% in 2021.
Overall Leaderboard: A Big Diehl
Greg Diehl isn’t bragging, he’s just being honest. He moved from fourth to first overall this week and says he intends to stay there. Greg only has two Main Event teams, but apparently that is all it took to grab the overall lead. He looks calm, he looks ready and he will be difficult to catch. However, Dave Rhydderch has the second overall (and 19th overall) teams, and could be difficult to get Rydd of (see what I did there?). Chris Uram checks into third (he was fifth last week), Robert DiPietro, the Pull Hitter himself, jumps from sixth to fourth and Jon Stadtmueller drops down the board a bit from second to fifth place overall.
Among the other top-30 contenders, Erik Sviggum is sixth, former overall champ Robert Cramutola is solidly in seventh, Bradley Libros is eighth, Eric Karlovic is ninth and Chris Boudreaux rounds out the top 10 overall.
A few other notables in the top 31 (the top 31 are paid an overall prize at the end of the season – see below table) include Andy Saxton (11th), Glenn Schroter (12th), Nelson Sousa (drops from first to 13th but he also has the 21st overall team), Jason Santeiu (15th and 25th) and three guys who I recommend keeping an eye on – Danny Bronski (20th), Steven Weimer (22nd) and Ned Donohue (23rd) .
But all 31 of these fantasy managers have gotten off to a terrific start, and that’s what you need in a big 855-team contest like the Main Event. But as the people down in 800th place or worse will tell you, it’s a long season (and they might also ask to extend it if necessary).
| Overall Rank | Overall Prize Money | Fantasy Manager | Overall Points | Points Behind 1st Place |
| 1 | $200,000 | Greg Diehl | 7496.5 | 0.0 |
| 2 | $50,000 | Dave Rhydderch | 7377.0 | 119.5 |
| 3 | $30,000 | Chris Uram | 7239.0 | 257.5 |
| 4 | $25,000 | Robert DiPietro | 7236.0 | 260.5 |
| 5 | $20,000 | Jon Stadtmueller | 7187.5 | 309.0 |
| 6 | $15,000 | Erik Sviggum | 7173.5 | 323.0 |
| 7 | $12,500 | Robert Cramutola | 7099.5 | 397.0 |
| 8 | $10,000 | Bradley Libros | 7057.5 | 439.0 |
| 9 | $9,000 | Eric Karlovic | 7033.0 | 463.5 |
| 10 | $8,000 | Chris Boudreaux | 6973.5 | 523.0 |
| 11 | $7,500 | Andy Saxton | 6970.5 | 526.0 |
| 12 | $7,000 | Glenn Schroter | 6966.0 | 530.5 |
| 13 | $6,500 | Nelson Sousa | 6963.0 | 533.5 |
| 14 | $6,000 | Nicholi Knutson | 6924.5 | 572.0 |
| 15 | $5,500 | Jason Santeiu | 6917.5 | 579.0 |
| 16 | $5,000 | Zach Bettencourt | 6904.0 | 592.5 |
| 17 | $4,000 | Dohn Terrell | 6866.5 | 630.0 |
| 18 | $3,500 | Neil Petersen | 6802.0 | 694.5 |
| 19 | $3,000 | Dave Rhydderch | 6794.0 | 702.5 |
| 20 | $2,500 | Danny Bronski | 6764.0 | 732.5 |
| 21 | $2,400 | Nelson Sousa | 6753.5 | 743.0 |
| 22 | $2,300 | Steven Weimer | 6698.5 | 798.0 |
| 23 | $2,200 | Ned Donohue | 6691.5 | 805.0 |
| 24 | $2,100 | Bill Gaffney | 6660.0 | 836.5 |
| 25 | $2,000 | Jason Santeiu | 6643.0 | 853.5 |
| 26 | $1,950 | Stephen Prepas | 6584.5 | 912.0 |
| 27 | $1,900 | Robert Beckman | 6541.5 | 955.0 |
| 28 | $1,850 | David Miller | 6534.5 | 962.0 |
| 29 | $1,800 | Gregg Martin | 6493.5 | 1003.0 |
| 30 | $1,750 | Steve Brunn | 6493.0 | 1003.5 |
| 31 | $1,700 | Mike Ballschmiede | 6461.0 | 916.0 |
| Average Top 31 Overall Score | Average Top 31 Overall Score | 6880.6 |
League of Legends
Here are the 31 Main Event leagues with the current top three in the standings as of the morning of April 22!
| NFBC League # | LEADER $7,000 prize | 2nd – $3,500 prize | 3rd – $1,750 prize |
| 1190 | Ryan Welborn | Dan Iverson | Gregg Martin |
| 1194 | Nicholi Knutson | Daniel DaSilva | Greg Miller |
| 1232 | David Miller | Ray Murphy | Rian Lange |
| 1233 | Danny Bronski | Andrew Sullivan | Andrew Kopicz |
| 1337 | Daniel DaSilva | Steven Heffernan | Robert Osgood Jr. |
| 1380 | Philippe Dussault | Michelle Smith | Scott Waggener |
| 1381 | Steven Weimer | David Clum | Jackson Price |
| 1418 | Neil Petersen | Christopher Torres | Shamir Naran |
| 1419 | Bill Gaffney | Brody John | Jeffrey Biddle |
| 1427 | Robert Cramutola | Robert DiPietro | Dave Anderson |
| 1438 | Dave Rhydderch | Abdulaziz Madani | Andrew Liesch |
| 1443 | Clark Olson | Jason Santeiu | Daniel DaSilva |
| 1460 | Erik Sviggum | David Hinkel | Zach Bettencourt |
| 1479 | Dave Rhydderch | Robert Beckman | Uttam Rath |
| 1484 | Adam Warner | Joe Bavaro | Zach Bettencourt |
| 1485 | Bill Gaffney | Jacob Sebastiao | Abdulaziz Madani |
| 1487 | Mike Ballschmiede | Brian Magnani | Dan Thompson |
| 1488 | Alex Gosline | Douglas Roth | Richard DiMondo |
| 1489 | Ben Tidd | Richard DiMondo | John Lymberis |
| 1493 | Paul Jager | Robert Cramutola | Alan Mitchell |
| 1516 | Mark Bendar | Matthew Davis | Adam Warner |
| 1517 | Jon Stadtmueller | Derrek Smith | Dominic Rello |
| 1518 | Michael O’Brien | Doug Moe | Jeff Campbell |
| 1519 | Kevin Hasting | Robert Cramutola | Zachary Waxman |
| 1520 | Peter Christensen | Jenny Butler | Steven Weimer |
| 1521 | Carter Gill | Griffin Benger | Kristopher Reed |
| 1522 | Chris Liss | Jeff Erickson | Glenn Schroter |
| 1523 | James Tomony | Clark Olson | John Fish |
| 1528 | Jonathan Vriesema | David Einhorn | Shelly Verougstraete |
| 1539 | Bradley Libros | Brian Teras | Andrew Geller |
| 1566 | Greg Diehl | Jeff Mitseff | Matt Leahy |
| 1585 | Leonard Ringle | Dave Sowa | Rey Diaz |
| 1586 | Chris Slack | Tom O’Bryan | Scott Gilbert |
| 1587 | James Maples | Ken Clark | Zachary Waxman |
| 1598 | Robert DiPietro | Michael O’Brien | Douglas Gruber |
| 1605 | Nelson Sousa | Mike Ballschmiede | Peter Marrero |
| 1615 | Eric Karlovic | Doug Cassidy | Mike Cameron |
| 1634 | Michael Lins | Aaron German | Andrew Nolan |
| 1645 | Stephen Ciepiela | Dave Rhydderch | Dominic Rello |
| 1646 | Ned Donohue | David DiDonato | Mark Northan |
| 1647 | Jon Stadtmueller | Mark Staley | Matthew McDonough |
| 1648 | Dustin Wagner | Darren Wasney | Scott Slezak |
| 1649 | Ross Berg | Chris Fessler | Robbie Brown |
| 1650 | David Miller | Todd Hoppe | Mark Kieffer |
| 1653 | Steve Brunn | Scott Waggener | Scott Fleming |
| 1658 | Chris Uram | Matthew Dugan | James Shriver |
| 1676 | Jason Santeiu | Todd Hoppe | Chet Lexvold |
| 1680 | Nelson Sousa | Lawrence Schechter | Jenny Butler |
| 1685 | Dohn Terrell | Abdulaziz Madani | David Deterra |
| 1692 | Glenn Schroter | Sammy Reid | Robert Brendler |
| 1707 | Zachary Viglianco | Hiep Hoang | Brian Edwards |
| 1714 | Chris Boudreaux | Aaron Lawson | Mike Ballschmiede |
| 1778 | Andy Saxton | Carter Gill | Jody Ryan |
| 1817 | Zach Bettencourt | Gregg Martin | Matthew Dugan |
| 1820 | Robert Giese | Tom Rodriguez | Rick Thomas |
| 1831 | Jason Santeiu | Nelson Sousa | Glenn Lowy |
| 1837 | Stephen Prepas | Robert Cramutola | Michael O’Brien |
Shout-outs
The 26 players listed below account for 23 of the 57 first place positions (40%) and 62 of the 171 total cashing positions (36%) – great job thus far!
So far, the most outstanding performance across the Main Events is Robert Cramutola, who has one first place and three second places. Congratulations Robert! But see below as Nelson Sousa, Jason Santeiu and Dave Rhydderch are also doing terrific work!
Notables include:
One first, three seconds – Robert Cramutola
Two firsts, one second – Nelson Sousa, Jason Santeiu, Dave Rhydderch
One first, one second, one third – Daniel DaSilva, Mike Ballschmiede, Michael O’Brien
One first, two thirds – Zach Bettencourt
Two seconds, one third – Abdulaziz Madani
Two firsts – David Miller, Bill Gaffney, Jon Stadtmueller
One first; one second – Robert DiPietro, Clark Olson, Carter Gill
One first; One third – Steven Weimer, Adam Warner, Glenn Schroter
Two seconds – Todd Hoppe
One second, one third – Gregg Martin, Scott Waggener, Jenny Butler, Matthew Dugan, Richard DiMondo
Two thirds – Dominic Rello, Zachary Waxman
GOOD LUCK IN WEEK 6
