NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Greg DulcichReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 7
Broncos vs. Jets
Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 18.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup quarterback Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.56 seconds per snap.
- The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The New York Jets pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.79 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 22-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
