Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+102/-134).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-134) after it opened @ 49.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (84th percentile).
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh’s unit has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
Cons
- The Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning.
- The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 39.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to be a less important option in his team’s running game in this contest (55.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.3% in games he has played).
- When it comes to opening holes for runners (and the influence it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
