NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Josh PalmerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Chargers vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Palmer’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Chargers will be forced to use backup QB Easton Stick in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a massive -12.5-point underdog this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.2%) versus WRs this year (71.2%).
Cons
- Josh Palmer’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 72.2% to 63.4%.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.24 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo’s unit has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
