NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Taylor HeinickePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Falcons vs. Colts
Right now, Taylor Heinicke’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 205.5 (-110) after it opened @ 201.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 138.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In this game, Taylor Heinicke is forecasted by our trusted projection set to average the 11th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.0.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.7 per game) this year.
- Taylor Heinicke’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 63.0% to 50.9%.
- Taylor Heinicke’s 5.81 adjusted yards-per-target this year illustrates a noteworthy regression in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 7.0% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards
224
Passing Yards
