NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jake BrowningPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Jake Browning’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-131) after it opened @ 234.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- With an exceptional 74.9% Adjusted Completion% (90th percentile) this year, Jake Browning has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league.
- Jake Browning ranks as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 8.53 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 93rd percentile.
- This year, the feeble Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a massive 5.46 YAC.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
- Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in football versus the Steelers defense this year (66.4% Adjusted Completion%).
- As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Pittsburgh’s group of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
238
Passing Yards
238
Passing Yards
