Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Jaguars to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.49 seconds per play.
- The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.6 per game) this year.
- Evan Engram’s 54.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a meaningful boost in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 43.0 figure.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- This year, the imposing Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a meager 6.2 yards.
- This year, the strong Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a puny 3.7 YAC.
- When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore’s collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
