NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Giants
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Giants are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.7 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
- Our trusted projections expect Darren Waller to accumulate 5.6 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- With a 58.6% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL has been the Giants.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
- The New York Giants O-line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- This year, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has given up a mere 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 5th-best rate in the league.
- As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, New Orleans’s group of LBs has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
