Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Titans vs. Texans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-135/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (+105) after it opened @ 32.5 (-115).
Pros
- In this week’s game, Chigoziem Okonkwo is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 82nd percentile among TEs with 5.1 targets.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 16.2% Target Rate this year reflects a noteable growth in his passing offense utilization over last year’s 10.8% rate.
- After accruing 21.0 air yards per game last season, Chigoziem Okonkwo has undergone big improvement this season, now boasting 33.0 per game.
- The Houston Texans defense has been gouged for the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (59.0) vs. TEs this year.
- As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, Houston’s group of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Titans are favored in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tennessee Titans to pass on 51.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are anticipated by the projection model to call just 64.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 71.9% to 68.0%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
