Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-141/+108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (+108) after it opened @ 230.5 (-114).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Jaguars being a -4-point underdog this week.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Jaguars to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.49 seconds per play.
- In this game, Trevor Lawrence is expected by the model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.7.
- The Ravens defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.6 per game) this year.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The Ravens pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, giving up 6.40 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in football.
- The Ravens defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
- When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore’s collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
