Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Giants vs. Packers
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 15.5 (-110) after it opened @ 14.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
- While Daniel Bellinger has been responsible for 4.7% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in New York’s passing attack in this contest at 11.3%.
- Daniel Bellinger ranks as one of the most effective pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 9.00 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.
- This year, the weak Packers defense has surrendered the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a colossal 8.76 yards.
- This year, the shaky Packers defense has been gouged for the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a whopping 5.58 YAC.
Cons
- The model projects the Giants as the least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see 129.8 total plays called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Packers, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.6 per game) this year.
- Daniel Bellinger has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (5.0 per game) than he did last season (12.0 per game).
- The New York offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
