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Welcome to Week 6 of our DVOA-based picks.

Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we pick every game.

Every week I will post picks on Thursday morning for subscribers. Come back here on Sunday morning and I will update the picks before the 1pm games begin.

The picks are listed with a confidence order and the picks with the strongest confidence will be colored blue. Those are picks with a difference of at least 7 points (straight up) or 3 points (spread and total). I do not make picks where the difference between the projection and the actual line is 0.1 points or lower.

Picks updated as of Sunday 11am EDT.

ORDER	HOME	AWAY	LINE (HOME)	PROJ LINE	SPREAD PICK	CONF. ORDER	STRAIGHT PICK	CONF. ORDER	TOTAL	PROJ TOTAL	TOTAL PICK	CONF. ORDER
1	KC	DEN	-10.5	-11.7	KC	10	KC	3	47.5	45.0	Under	5
2	TEN	BAL	5	8.1	BAL	3	BAL	5	42	42.0	—	—
3	ATL	WAS	-1.5	-2.2	ATL	12	ATL	12	42.5	43.7	Over	9
4	CHI	MIN	3	4.3	MIN	9	MIN	11	44	43.5	Under	13
5	CIN	SEA	-3	-0.4	SEA	5	CIN	15	45.5	46.4	Over	10
6	CLE	SF	9.5	9.8	SF	13	SF	4	36	40.7	Over	1
7	HOU	NO	1.5	5.3	NO	1	NO	10	42	42.7	Over	11
8	JAX	IND	-4	-6.8	JAX	4	JAX	7	44	42.5	Under	7
9	MIA	CAR	-14	-13.2	CAR	11	MIA	2	47.5	44.4	Under	3
10	LV	NE	-3	-0.8	NE	6	LV	14	41.5	44.7	Over	2
11	TB	DET	3	6.6	DET	2	DET	8	42.5	45.0	Over	4
12	LAR	ARI	-7	-5.5	ARI	7	LAR	9	47.5	46.3	Under	8
13	NYJ	PHI	6.5	7.9	PHI	8	PHI	6	42.5	44.0	Over	6
14	BUF	NYG	-14.5	-14.8	BUF	15	BUF	1	43.5	43.5	—	—
15	LAC	DAL	1.5	1.2	LAC	14	DAL	13	51	50.4	Under	12

W-L record through Week 5

Spread: 32-32-5
Straight: 54-23
Totals: 37-39